NCM L2 Predictions - 14th

Last updated : 25 July 2009 By Jacob Daniel
It's time for another NCM League Two prediction, and today we move up to 14th place, and perhaps a controversial choice in Shrewsbury Town...

Last Season

Most would describe the Shrews' 08/09 campaign as underwhelming, despite getting to a play-off final, which shows the weight of expectation that was on Paul Simpson and his side from the word go last year. The £170,000 lavished on Grant Holt was by far the biggest League Two transfer of the summer and was always going to guarantee goals, whilst the terrible ending to the previous season was more down to a lack of confidence and motivation than quality. The general concensus was that Simpson had at his disposal a side with more than enough to get themselves automatically promoted, so to squeeze into the play-offs on the last day thanks to a win at Dagenham & Redbridge has to go down as something of an anti-climax.

They scraped through the play-off semis too, needing a last minute equaliser and a penalty shoot out to beat Bury, while in the final they were outplayed by Gillingham before losing to an injury time Simeon Jackson goal. Simpson's side was better on paper than that suggested though, Luke Daniels the loanee 'keeper was superb and a defence comprising experienced campaigners Michael Jackson and Graham Coughlan and sturdy League Two performers Ben Herd, Darren Moss and Kelvin Langmead should've meant a solid base. In midfield the prodigious Ben Davies was backed up by the solid Shane Cansdell-Sherriff and loanees Gylfi Sigurdsson and Sean Thornton kept things ticking over. Upfront Holt provided the goals and outlet that everyone knew he would although he struggled for a consistent partner, with Simpson trying out Richard Walker, Omer Riza, Moses Ashikodi and Nick Chadwick amongst others but never finding a suitable foil. Their biggest issue was their away form however, which saw them win just twice away from the New Meadow in the league all season.

The Manager

Paul Simpson is a man who's had an up and down managerial career, it's fair to say. Things got off to a terrible start at Rochdale where as player-manager he was genuinely rubbish and is still despised at Spotland to this day. At Carlisle he took the side down in his first season, but this was always going to be the case with a transfer embargo and a threadbare squad, but the Cumbrians' late season form did indicate they could be successful the next season, and they were. Simpson's side won the Conference play-offs defeating Stevenage Borough, and he lead them straight through League Two thanks to momentum and a well constructed squad.

He left for Preston North End where he lead the side to the top of the table by Christmas, but alarming form meant a slide down the table where they could only just cling onto a play-off place, but going into the lottery with such poor form they flopped. The next year Simpson was a disaster, and he was sacked with Preston languishing in the relegation zone. He re-emerged at Shrewsbury as a replacement to Gary Peters but failed to reverse their poor form. After being given money to lavish on Holt, Cansdell-Sherriff, Coughlan and others Shrewsbury were joint favourites for the new season with Bradford City, but flattered to deceive before gaining a play-off spot. Serious errors have been made by Simpson in his time at Shrewsbury, releasing Jimmy Ryan who has flourished at Accrington Stanley and Scott Bevan who was superb at Torquay United last season after his first year in charge being a couple of examples, as well as spending his January transfer budget last year on the inadequate Terry Dunfield.

The Squad

Simpson's side has been well and truly ripped apart this summer, and isn't the same as the one that was so well fancied last year. Daniels has returned to West Brom and time will tell whether replacement Chris Neal is up to the job, as back up Glyn Garner has struggled to find form at Shrewsbury. In defence Coughlan and Jackson are a year older and a year less mobile, and a lot depends on the form of Kelvin Langmead. Dean Holden is a solid signing but seems slightly pointless given Simpson had two equally suitable right backs at the club in Darren Moss and Ben Herd, neither of whom he could hang onto. At left back Cansdell-Sherriff could play in his natural position more this year, with Neil Ashton having been allowed to leave by Simpson, despite being another adequate squad player.

In midfield Ben Davies has been suitably replaced by ex-Mansfield Town man Craig Disley, by far the Shrews' best capture of the summer. Paul Murray has also been brought in after a spell at Gretna, and should be a solid buy, but back up in the form of Dunfield looks questionable. Out wide former Notts loanee Lewis Neal is nothing more than an average winger at this level and doesn't have anything like the potential or ability of Chris Humphrey, who's left for Motherwell. Kevin McIntyre and Steven Leslie also provide options but also give the midfield an inbalanced look with too many left sided players and not enough capable on the right. Having lost Holt their real issues could be upfront though, with new signing Jake Simpson a tricky creator but anything but a goalscorer. Dave Hibbert has never impressed Simpson when given a chance and Omer Riza has struggled to settle at the club, youngster Andre Gray has potential but it's too early to expect a serious impact from him. Selling the Conference's best striker James Constable for a cut price fee without giving him a chance at this level is really looking like Simpson's biggest error yet. Talk of interest in Paul Benson from Dagenham could allay some of these fears, but until a Holt replacement is signed sealed and delivered there'll be some very concerned people in Shropshire.

Prediction

14th