NCM L2 Predictions - How We Did Part One

Last updated : 09 June 2010 By Jacob Daniel

It can be argued that predicting anything is a foolish idea as it almost inevitably ends in you being wrong and therefore being mocked. However, NCM stuck our head on the line before the season to predict the League Two table and the time has come to look back to see whether we are Nostradamus or slightly more Michael Fish.

24th - Aldershot Town (6th)

 NCM Said - "No one wants to be bottom, and Aldershot's fans were a credit to their club at Meadow Lane last season. Believe me, there are clubs i'd much rather see finish bottom than Aldershot, but with a manager who has struggled when the goings gotten tough in the past and with a goal shy squad low on Football League experience, we think the Shots' Football League stay will prove to have been a short one."

In Reality... - Well, lets start things as we mean to go on, shall we? The Shots were one of the success stories of the season and reached the play-offs, losing out to Rotherham United. Our predictions of a goal shy strike force were proved incorrect by the newly discovered goalscoring form of Marvin Morgan, whilst Scott Donnelly had a wonderful season in midfield. They even managed to get through the departure of manager Gary Waddock with few problems and proved a lot of people, not least NCM, very wrong.

23rd - Cheltenham Town (22nd)

NCM Said - "Surprising maybe, given their recent relegation from the division above, but taken on merit Cheltenham's side is no better than one which will struggle in League Two, while their manager is struggling to find the magic touch that brought him success at Brentford and MK Dons. A huge lack of funds means reinforcements could be limited and lacking in the quality and experience Cheltenham will need if they are to prove NCM wrong."

In Reality... - This one turned out to be something of a success story for NCM, particularly as Cheltenham were one of the sides who had a messageboard brimming with disapproval at our prediction. The signs were fairly obvious though, a squad lacking quality and a manager in Martin Allen who had completely lost the plot. Replacing Allen with Mark Yates probably saved the Robins, but he has a big job on next year to turn things around at Whaddon Road.

22nd - Accrington Stanley (15th)

NCM Said -   "The least surprising of NCM's predictions so far, it's hard to find a League Two fan who doesn't think Stanley will get relegated this season. But then again, these are the same people who assumed Coleman's side would slide back into non-league in the previous two seasons. They will struggle due to the small squad and the loss of Arthur, while there are less obvious relegation candidates and points deductions than in previous years, but Stanley have a manager with enough nous and a handful of quality players, meaning they will survive."

In Reality... - One of the first rules of League Two football is never to write off Accrington Stanley and John Coleman, something we just about managed to avoid doing. What we weren't counting on was one of the key sources of their survival, reborn striker Michael Symes who scored the goals that kept Stanley in upper mid-table until a late slump. They've already lost Darran Kempson and Symes this summer, but we've learned enough to know Coleman is a good enough manager to keep Stanley's heads above water at that level.

21st - Grimsby Town (23rd)

NCM Said -   "Mariners fans seem so infatuated with Newell and his side's late season run that they are even willing to forgive the signing of Michael Leary, something which NCM simply doesn't understand. Signing so many former loan players is also a risk, all Football League clubs will have countless stories of players who impressed on loan only to lose all worth when signed permanently. Of course they could click and we could be wrong, but we'd be surprised."

In Reality... - Another feather in the cap for NCM this one, considering how scathing Grimsby fans were of us for this prediction of their season. In reality we were spot on about Newell not being the right man for the job and a squad completely devoid of quality, but we just thought they'd have enough to stay up when they went down with a whimper in the end. The loss of Ryan Bennett to Peterborough was probably the final nail in their coffin.

20th - Port Vale (10th)

NCM Said - "The appointment of a 'name' manager may have encouraged some optimism at Vale Park, but at the end of their day their squad is the same one that was so hopeless last season, give or take a couple of Brighton reserves. If Marc Richards manages to stay fit for more than half a season then they stand a chance of doing a bit better, but I wouldn't bet on it."

In Reality... - We'll be fair to Micky Adams and Vale here and say they surprised us and were probably quite unlucky not to make a better first of the play-offs. Adams seems to have refound the sparks that made him a success earlier in his career and the goals of Richards coupled with a solid defence made Vale a tough proposition this season, as Notts found out. Definitely one to watch for next year.

19th - Burton Albion (13th)

NCM Said -  "On paper NCM actually thinks Burton's side can do a lot better than 19th, but Peschisolido's managerial inexperience and the fact they signed Guy Branston means that they are unlikely to trouble mid-table and beyond. That said, we're sure survival would represent a successful first league campaign for Burton Albion."

In Reality - To be fair to us here, we said we could see that Burton's squad comprised plenty of quality but Peschisolido's inexperience could blight them. As it turned out, he was able to harness that quality and even get more out than we knew was there, with Shaun Harrad inexplicably becoming a twenty goal a season man. Next year will be interesting for Albion, having established themselves it'll be interesting to see if they can push on or whether they'll fall backwards.

18th - Darlington (24th)

NCM Said - "The pairing of Foster and Miller in centre half is so good that it means the Quakers' lack of quality and numbers elsewhere will not prove to be fatal, and Todd's side should be relatively safe. Lee Thorpe and Dean Windass are seasoned pros and whilst it is unlikely they'll provide a huge amount of goals they will, at least, provide problems for opposition defences, whilst Lumsdon is good but probably won't be able to play in midfield on his own. A reliance on youngsters, a lack of players and the general turmoil surrounding Darlington will mean the Quakers are set for their worst season in a while, however."

In Reality... - I'm not sure if anyone saw how bad the Quakers were actually going to be coming, so 18th possibly isn't as much of a disastrous prediction as it looks like. We said the key was the central defensive pairing of Foster and Miller, which never really materialised and they never even looked like staying up pretty much from the word go.

17th - Macclesfield Town (19th)

NCM Said - "We feel Keith's side has the potential to do quite well, and could even push the top half with a good start. Lower mid-table is perhaps more realistic for the Silkmen however. The likes of Bencherif and Morgan means the defence should be solid enough and Bolland is a good signing to fit into a Keith Alexander team. Ben Wright is proven at this level and youngsters Rooney, Reid and Brisley mean that the side has a young core produced in the youth system. There are also a lot of risky signings like Daniel, Wilson and Sinclair, but they are the kind that could easily turn out to be unearthed gems."

In Reality... - A pretty accurate prediction this one, even if we do say so ourselves. Some exciting youngsters provided a decent season at Moss Rose, whilst the ship was steadied by a decent core of solid, experience professionals. In truth, this was a quiet season for Macc that will only really be remembered for the tragic death of manager Keith Alexander. RIP Keith.

16th - Crewe Alexandra (18th)

NCM Said - "There is a bit more quality in the current Crewe squad than Gudjon had whilst at Notts, so they should be safe enough, but probably despite the Icelander rather than thanks to him. The likes of Donaldson, Shelley and Elding should excel at this level and provide the ammunition to keep Crewe in mid-table. The defence looks worrying and should Mitchel-King and Ada not make the step up then the goals could be flying in at the wrong end. This may all seem very anti-Gudjon, but he simply is not a man who should be managing Crewe. He's an old school disciplinarian who sets out to concede less than he scores and doesn't encourage creativity and flair, he seems to have a phobia of giving youngsters a chance and falls out with any challenging personality within days. He should be the Railwaymen's anti-christ, we can't see this match made in hell lasting the season."

In Reality... - This isn't going to badly now, is it!?! We criticised Gudjon for not having a 'Crewe mentality' and I think this proved to be spot on, with the Ice man being sacked not long into the season. Dario Gradi was left to get things moving, but he was never going to be able to do much with such an average squad. The emergence of yet more youngsters will provide hope for the future, but the Railwaymen need a clear out and fresh ideas.

15th - Lincoln City (20th)

NCM Said - "With Jackson concentrating on managing rather than posturing he should be able to lead Lincoln to a similar finish as last year but with a poorer squad. Fagan could be a real gem but could struggle if the burden of scoring all the Imps' goals is put on his shoulders, while Butcher and Kerr smacks of a run-of-the-mill midfield. Defence is where their real quality lies but it is inexperienced and will make mistakes, with all these issues adding together to mean that the Imps will struggle to make much of an impact on the division this year."

In Reality... - We perhaps gave the original Lincoln squad too much credit and it's lack of quality soon saw Peter Jackson shown the door. Chris Sutton steadied the ship, but brought in plenty of his own man and struggled to really turn things around. I think it'll probably be a while before we see Lincoln challenging at the top of the division again and Sutton has a big job on having lost the likes of Burch to Notts and with Herd and Somma returning to their parent clubs.

14th - Shrewsbury Town (12th)

NCM Said - "Simpson's side has been well and truly ripped apart this summer, and isn't the same as the one that was so well fancied last year. Daniels has returned to West Brom and time will tell whether replacement Chris Neal is up to the job, as back up Glyn Garner has struggled to find form at Shrewsbury. In defence Coughlan and Jackson are a year older and a year less mobile, and a lot depends on the form of Kelvin Langmead. Dean Holden is a solid signing but seems slightly pointless given Simpson had two equally suitable right backs at the club in Darren Moss and Ben Herd, neither of whom he could hang onto."

In Reality... - This was another prediction that raised a few eyebrows, but the Shrews' disappointing season is something that we could see coming from a mile away. Paul Simpson just isn't a very good manager and any team would've struggled to cope with the loss of Grant Holt and Ben Davies, particularly when you look at the replacements they added. The Shrews were actually one of the best sides to come to Meadow Lane all season, but they struggled to find form throughout and fell away badly towards the end of Simpson's tenure.

13th - Dagenham & Redbridge (7th)

NCM Said - "Still is an experienced and wise manager at this level and his exemplary player scouting and development should ensure that at least one or two previously unknown players break through at Victoria Road this season. If they can keep hold of Benson he will guarantee goals and whilst having lost their 'stars', they have kept hold of steady and consistent performers such as Gain, Taiwo and Griffiths who deserve as much credit for their success as anyone else."

In Reality... - Rule number two of League Two football is that John Still shall never be questioned. Any manager who has the ability to keep plucking talented footballers from non-league deserves a huge amount of credit, but to then take them to promotion on a budget as small of Dagenham's is nothing short of a miracle. Still will probably lose the likes of Danny Green and Scott Doe this summer, but who'd be against him replacing them, like he has done others with such great success? One of the real success stories of the season, their win at Wembley was a triumph for the smaller clubs and a triumph for living the dream.